Book/Printed Material Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2013 relative to insurgencies since World War II Afghanistan in early 2013 relative to insurgencies since World War II

Title

• Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2013 relative to insurgencies since World War II

Other Title

• Afghanistan in early 2013 relative to insurgencies since World War II

Summary

• The RAND report Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies added 41 new cases to a previously studied set of 30 insurgencies, examining the 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide between World War II and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A key finding of this research was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 11 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices perfectly discriminated the outcomes of the cases analyzed. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices correlated with either a COIN win (insurgency loss) or a COIN loss (insurgency win) in the overall case. Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND study sought to apply the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2013. The effort involved an expert elicitation, or Delphi exercise, in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. The consensus results revealed that early 2013 Afghanistan ranks among the historical COIN winners, but its score is equal to those of the lowest-scoring historical wins. This tenuous position points to several areas in need of improvement, but particularly the need to disrupt the flow of insurgent support and the need for the Afghan government and Afghan security forces to better demonstrate their commitment and motivation. Afghanistan in early 2011 scored in the middle of the historical record in terms of COIN wins and losses, suggesting an overall improvement in COIN progress in that conflict by early 2013. However, conditions may change as coalition forces prepare to hand over responsibility for the country's security to the Afghan government and Afghan security forces in 2014.

Names

• Paul, Christopher, 1971- author
• Clarke, Colin P., author
• Grill, Beth., author
• Dunigan, Molly., author
• Rand Corporation
• National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)

Created / Published

• Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, [2013]

Contents

• Findings from previous research on insurgency -- The counterinsurgency scorecard -- Scoring Afghanistan in 2013 -- Detailed factors in the current case -- Afghanistan in comparison to specific historical cases -- 2013 results compared with 2011 results -- Conclusions and recommendations.

Headings

• -  Counterinsurgency--Afghanistan
• -  Counterinsurgency--Case studies
• -  Counterinsurgency
• -  Afghanistan

Genre

• Case studies

Notes

• -  "RR-396-OSD"--Cover page 4.
• -  "National Defense Research Institute."
• -  Also available on the Internet as a PDF file.
• -  Includes bibliographical references (page 25).
• -  Description based on print version record; resource not viewed.

Medium

• 1 online resource (x, 25 pages)

Call Number/Physical Location

• U241

Digital Id

• https://hdl.loc.gov/loc.gdc/gdcebookspublic.2024738857

Library of Congress Control Number

• 2024738857

Rights Advisory

• This is non-restricted, fully open content that may be accessed on and off of the Library of Congress campus, with no restrictions, by an unlimited number of users

Access Advisory

• Unrestricted online access

Online Format

• image
• pdf

LCCN Permalink

• https://lccn.loc.gov/2024738857

Additional Metadata Formats

• MARCXML Record
• MODS Record
• Dublin Core Record