Book/Printed Material Counterinsurgency scorecard update : Afghanistan in early 2015 relative to insurgencies since World War II

Title

• Counterinsurgency scorecard update : Afghanistan in early 2015 relative to insurgencies since World War II

Summary

• "Previous RAND research examined 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide between World War II and 2010 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A key finding was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 11 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices corresponded perfectly with the outcomes of the cases analyzed. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices was always positive when the outcome was a COIN win (insurgent loss) and always negative when the outcome was a COIN loss (insurgent win). Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND study sought to apply the findings to the case of Afghanistan in 2015. The effort involved an expert elicitation in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. It was the third Afghanistan-focused exercise conducted with the scorecard, allowing rough comparisons with scores assigned by expert panels in 2011 and 2013. The 2015 consensus results indicated that Afghanistan continues to have a positive score, though its score is tied with the lowest-scoring historical wins. Two factors remained absent in Afghanistan in 2015 but essential to success in historical COIN campaigns: disrupting flows of tangible support to the insurgents and a demonstration (and improvement) of commitment and motivation on the part of the Afghan National Security Forces, the primary COIN force since the coalition drawdown. Despite some potentially positive developments resulting from the 2014 election of a new government in Afghanistan, it appears that the most promising end to the conflict will be a negotiated settlement in which the Afghan government makes some concessions to the insurgents and in which external powers, including the United States and Pakistan, help broker a satisfactory power-sharing agreement that brings greater stability to the country"--Publisher's description.

Names

• Paul, Christopher, 1971- author
• Clarke, Colin P., author
• National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)
• United States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense, sponsoring body

Created / Published

• Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, [2016]
• ©2016

Contents

• Counterinsurgency Scorecard Update: Afghanistan in Early 2015 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II -- Findings from Previous Research on Insurgency -- Counterinsurgency Scorecard -- Endgames for Insurgencies: Getting to Negotiated Settlements -- Scoring the Ongoing Conflict in Afghanistan -- Using the Delphi Method -- Building on Previous Scorecards -- 2015 Scorecard Results -- Specific Factors in the Current Case -- Notes on Factors Present or Absent in 2015 but Tenuous in the Future -- 2015 Results Compared with Previous Results and Analyses -- What Improved? -- What Declined? -- What Stayed the Same? -- Scorecard and Duration of Conflict -- Summary of Scorecard Analyses -- Prospects for a Negotiated Settlement -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- APPENDIX : Detail of the Expert Elicitation.

Headings

• -  Counterinsurgency--Afghanistan--Case studies
• -  Counterinsurgency--Afghanistan
• -  Asymmetric warfare--Afghanistan
• -  Low-intensity conflicts (Military science)--Afghanistan
• -  Peacekeeping forces--Afghanistan
• -  Insurgency--Afghanistan--History--21st century
• -  Contre-rébellion--Afghānistān--Études de cas
• -  Contre-rébellion--Afghānistān
• -  Guerre asymétrique--Afghānistān
• -  Conflits de basse intensité--Afghānistān
• -  Révoltes--Afghānistān--Histoire--21e siècle
• -  Asymmetric warfare
• -  Counterinsurgency
• -  Insurgency
• -  Low-intensity conflicts (Military science)
• -  Peacekeeping forces
• -  Afghanistan
• -  2000-2099

Genre

• Case studies
• History

Notes

• -  "RAND National Defense Research Institute."
• -  Also available on the Internet as a PDF file.
• -  Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
• -  Includes bibliographical references (pages 37-38).
• -  Description based on print version record; resource not viewed.

Medium

• 1 online resource (xi, 38 pages) : illustrations.

Call Number/Physical Location

• U241

Digital Id

• https://hdl.loc.gov/loc.gdc/gdcebookspublic.2024739094

Library of Congress Control Number

• 2024739094

Rights Advisory

• This is non-restricted, fully open content that may be accessed on and off of the Library of Congress campus, with no restrictions, by an unlimited number of users

Access Advisory

• Unrestricted online access

Online Format

• image
• pdf

LCCN Permalink

• https://lccn.loc.gov/2024739094

Additional Metadata Formats

• MARCXML Record
• MODS Record
• Dublin Core Record