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Book/Printed Material Conflict trends and conflict drivers : an empirical assessment of historical conflict patterns and future conflict projections Empirical assessment of historical conflict patterns and future conflict projections

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Title

  • Conflict trends and conflict drivers : an empirical assessment of historical conflict patterns and future conflict projections

Other Title

  • Empirical assessment of historical conflict patterns and future conflict projections

Summary

  • "Armed conflict has declined in both frequency and intensity since the end of the Cold War. The trends are especially clear for interstate conflict, but they also hold true for intrastate conflict. Taking into account historical trends and projections of key conflict drivers, the interstate and intrastate baseline future conflict projections in this report depict a continued decline through 2040, with interstate conflict down to extremely low levels and a much lower incidence of intrastate conflict. Some divergence from these projections is likely. The three factors that most strongly increased interstate conflict expectations were declining U.S. preeminence, declining capabilities of international organizations, and declining prevalence of consolidated democracies. The incidence of intrastate conflict is expected to increase if the capacity of state institutions or the rate of economic growth declines. Although the authors' projections indicate that interstate conflict may be rare in the future, the United States must retain a ready and credible land power deterrent to ensure such a future. Such a deterrent might not be used frequently, but its very existence delays the rise of a challenger and has a dampening effect on the incidence of conflict. The authors' projections also indicate that intrastate conflict (including proxy wars) will continue to be the main form of conflict incidence and, given the U.S. position in the international state system, Army forces are likely to become engaged in such conflicts. The trends toward a decrease in conflict incidence do not necessarily mean fewer U.S. interventions"--Publisher's web site

Names

  • Szayna, Thomas S., 1960- author
  • Frederick, Bryan A., author
  • Kavanagh, Jennifer, 1981- author
  • O'Mahony, Angela, author
  • Watts, Stephen (Stephen Baldwin), author
  • United States. Department of the Army. Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, sponsor
  • Arroyo Center. Army Research Division, issuing body
  • Arroyo Center. Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program, researcher
  • Rand Corporation, publisher

Created / Published

  • Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation, [2017]
  • ©2017

Contents

  • Introduction -- Overview of conflict trends -- Operationalizing and projecting key factors that will influence the future incidence of conflict -- Establishing the "no surprises" future -- Alternative futures -- Final observations.

Headings

  • -  United States.--Army--Operational readiness
  • -  États-Unis.--Army--État de préparation opérationnelle
  • -  United States.--Army
  • -  War--Forecasting
  • -  War--History--Research
  • -  Guerre--Histoire--Recherche
  • -  Guerre--Prévision
  • -  Armed Forces--Operational readiness
  • -  Military policy
  • -  War--Research
  • -  United States--Military policy
  • -  United States

Genre

  • History
  • Technical reports

Notes

  • -  "Prepared for the United States Army."
  • -  Includes bibliographical references (pages 250-260).
  • -  RAN136469
  • -  Description based on print version record; resource not viewed.

Medium

  • 1 electronic resource (xxv, 260 pages )

Call Number/Physical Location

  • MLCM 2022/43139 (UA)

Digital Id

Library of Congress Control Number

  • 2024739107

Rights Advisory

  • This is non-restricted, fully open content that may be accessed on and off of the Library of Congress campus, with no restrictions, by an unlimited number of users

Access Advisory

  • Unrestricted online access

Online Format

  • image
  • pdf

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Cite This Item

Citations are generated automatically from bibliographic data as a convenience, and may not be complete or accurate.

Chicago citation style:

Szayna, Thomas S., Author, Bryan A Frederick, Jennifer Kavanagh, Angela O'Mahony, Stephen Watts, Sponsor United States Department Of The Army. Office Of The Deputy Chief Of Staff For Intelligence, Issuing Body Arroyo Center. Army Research Division, Doctrine Arroyo Center. Strategy, and Publisher Rand Corporation. Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections. [Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, ©, 2017] Pdf. https://aj.sunback.homes/item/2024739107/.

APA citation style:

Szayna, T. S., Frederick, B. A., Kavanagh, J., O'Mahony, A., Watts, S., United States Department Of The Army. Office Of The Deputy Chief Of Staff For Intelligence, S. [...] Rand Corporation, P. (2017) Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections. [Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, ©] [Pdf] Retrieved from the Library of Congress, https://aj.sunback.homes/item/2024739107/.

MLA citation style:

Szayna, Thomas S., Author, et al. Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections. [Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, ©, 2017] Pdf. Retrieved from the Library of Congress, <aj.sunback.homes/item/2024739107/>.