Book/Printed Material Developing a methodology for risk-informed trade-space analysis in acquisition

Title

• Developing a methodology for risk-informed trade-space analysis in acquisition

Summary

• "This report describes the methodology for risk-informed trade-space analysis developed by the U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity Risk Integrated Product Team and researchers from the RAND Corporation and the first iteration of the associated Risk-Informed Trade Analysis Model. The framework combines elements of system engineering, production economics, and risk analysis to functionally and probabilistically relate performance, schedule, and cost outcomes and their uncertainties holistically and understandably. The technology development process is conceptualized as one in which the physical system is described as a portfolio of technologies with associated technical capabilities, and the completion of each technology's development is a discrete random variable. The performance characteristics of the final system are stochastic. In addition, the time of technology development is also stochastic and, in part, drives the overall cost of the system. In a departure from previous analyses, the authors incorporate technology-specific courses of action, or risk-mitigation behaviors, that are assumed to take place in the event that the technology is not developed at the milestone date. For example, one might assume that a lesser-performing but existing substitute could replace a particular developmental technology or that, if that technology is of critical importance, the schedule might be allowed to slip. Through analysis of alternative courses of action and their effects on the resultant probability distributions estimated for performance, schedule, and cost, decisionmakers have a means to understand the implications of certain risk-mitigating actions. Technology, schedule, and cost trades can be examined between or within individual systems"--Publisher's web site.

Names

• Bond, Craig A. (Craig Andrew), author
• Mayer, Lauren A., author
• McMahon, Michael E., author
• Kallimani, James G., author
• Sanchez, Ricardo R., 1979- author
• Arroyo Center, issuing body
• Rand Corporation, publisher

Created / Published

• Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation, [2015]

Contents

• Introduction -- Current cost, schedule, and performance risk methodologies within the Army -- Theoretical framework for risk-informed trade-space analysis -- Proposed conceptual model of risk-informed trade-space analysis in the acquisition of weapon systems -- The model -- An example application of the risk-informed trade analysis model using a demonstration tool -- Conclusions.

Headings

• -  United States.--Army--Procurement--Mathematical models
• -  United States.--Army--Weapons systems--Cost control--Mathematical models
• -  Microsoft Excel (Computer file)
• -  Risk management--Mathematical models
• -  Weapons systems--Cost control--Mathematical models
• -  Risk assessment--Mathematical models
• -  Stochastic systems
• -  Visual Basic (Computer program language)

Notes

• -  "RR-701-A"--Cover page 4.
• -  Series from web site.
• -  "Arroyo Center."
• -  "Prepared for the United States Army."
• -  Also available on the Internet as a PDF file.
• -  Includes bibliographical references (pages 159-162).
• -  Description based on print version record; resource not viewed.

Medium

• 1 online resource (xxi, 162 pages) : illustrations.

Call Number/Physical Location

• UC263

Digital Id

• https://hdl.loc.gov/loc.gdc/gdcebookspublic.2024739281

Library of Congress Control Number

• 2024739281

Rights Advisory

• This is non-restricted, fully open content that may be accessed on and off of the Library of Congress campus, with no restrictions, by an unlimited number of users

Access Advisory

• Unrestricted online access

Online Format

• image
• pdf

LCCN Permalink

• https://lccn.loc.gov/2024739281

Additional Metadata Formats

• MARCXML Record
• MODS Record
• Dublin Core Record