Book/Printed Material Russian military forecasting and analysis : the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning

Title

• Russian military forecasting and analysis : the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning

Summary

• The Russian Ministry of Defense uses military forecasting to inform its long-term planning. Since the 1960s, Russian military analysis has applied comprehensive assessments of a country's ability to wage war that go beyond weapons and formations. The Ministry of Defense uses this forecasting to answer (1) what is the likelihood and character of future war and (2) what is the correlation of military potential between Russia and its potential adversaries? In this report, the authors draw on an established framework to examine key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the answers to these questions. The Russian military science and academic research that the authors of this report reviewed found that the correlation of military potential (state power)-a broad measure that includes political, economic, scientific-technical, and conventional armed forces indicators-is and will be weighted in favor of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the West and the United States and Japan in the Asia-Pacific region through 2040. The factors that could improve Russia's competitive position are the inclusion of China in the correlation of military potential and the possible reduced ability of the United States to manage the international system in ways that favor its interests. Russia's current military assessments and forecasts have not found indications of intentions of the United States or China to launch a large-scale war against Russia. The conditions under which Russia might take preemptive military action that risks war with an opponent with superior military potential remain an open question.

Names

• Reach, Clint, author
• Demus, Alyssa, author
• Han, Eugeniu, author
• Lilly, Bilyana, author
• Marcinek, Krystyna, author
• Shokh, Yuliya, author
• International Security and Defense Policy Center
• Rand Corporation
• United States. European Command

Created / Published

• Santa Monica, CA : RAND National Defense Research Institute, [2022]

Contents

• Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: The VPO in Russian Military Planning -- Chapter Three: Russian Conceptions, Assessments, and Forecasts of State Power and Military Potential -- Chapter Four: Assessing and Forecasting Critical Technologies -- Chapter Five: Russian Characterizations of the VPO and Military Threats -- Chapter Six: Conclusion -- Appendix A: Indicators of Information Confrontation -- Appendix B: VPO Assessment and Forecast Methodology -- Appendix C: The Russian Process for Determining Critical Technologies.

Headings

• -  Military planning--Russia (Federation)
• -  Military art and science--Russia (Federation)

Notes

• -  Title from PDF document (title page; viewed June 23, 2022)
• -  "Prepared for the Russia Strategic Initiative, United States European Command"
• -  Also available on the Internet as a PDF file.
• -  Includes bibliographical references (pages 147-160).
• -  Description from electronic resource
• -  Description based on print version record; resource not viewed.

Medium

• 1 online resource (xix, 160 pages) : illustrations.

Call Number/Physical Location

• UA770

Digital Id

• https://hdl.loc.gov/loc.gdc/gdcebookspublic.2024739160

Library of Congress Control Number

• 2024739160

Rights Advisory

• This is non-restricted, fully open content that may be accessed on and off of the Library of Congress campus, with no restrictions, by an unlimited number of users

Access Advisory

• Unrestricted online access

Online Format

• image
• pdf

LCCN Permalink

• https://lccn.loc.gov/2024739160

Additional Metadata Formats

• MARCXML Record
• MODS Record
• Dublin Core Record